UN estimate of Syria death toll highlights discrepancies in casualty reporting

A new United Nations-sponsored report that estimates more than 60,000 people have died in Syria’s political violence has touched off a new dispute that underscores how little is truly known about the toll from a civil war just weeks from beginning its third year.
One Syrian activist who provided some of the numbers for the study says he believes the new numbers are inflated, while another says he believes they underrepresent the dead.
“They are being used as propaganda,” said Rami Abdel Rahman, the head of the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, who believes the new numbers overstate the number of dead. “The UN is not a human rights organization, it is a political one.”
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Rahman said he believed the report, made public Wednesday, was being used to pressure countries into working harder to reach a political deal to stop the fighting.
Rahman’s criticism is notable. His organization’s numbers, gathered from informants on the ground in Syria, are the most widely quoted source for information on the daily violence inside Syria. His is also the only organization that attempts to record casualties from all sides of the conflict – rebels, the government and civilians. To date, he’s logged about 46,000 deaths since the uprising against Syrian President Bashar Assad began in March 2011.
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Megan Price, a senior statistician for Benetech, the California firm that compiled the report for the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, said Rahman had shared his concerns with the report’s authors. "We have nothing but the utmost respect for the groups doing this very hard work,” Price said, adding that Rahman’s concerns about the accuracy of some of the data used in the study “are valid."
But she also said she still agreed with the report’s general conclusion that the data used to compile the report, gathered from six organizations and the Syrian government, almost certainly missed a number of deaths that have yet to be counted. “The statistics presented in this report should be considered minimum bounds,” the report said.
“Based on our experience in other countries, and really just thinking about the way that violence occurs, there will inevitably be violence that is not recorded, especially if it leaves behind only the perpetrators or witnesses who don’t feel safe enough to report or they don’t have any reason to,” she said.
That view was endorsed by Radwan Ziadeh, the director of the Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies, which is part of another group that tracks casualties, the Syrian Network for Human Rights. The network, which only records deaths of rebel fighters and civilians, has reported the deaths of 42,343 people since March 18, 2011.
The likelihood that many deaths have gone unreported should spur a push for international monitors to document the violence in Syria, said Ziadeh, a member of the Syrian National Council, an opposition exile group that has lobbied hard for international support for the rebels.
“This is why it’s important to have independent fact-finding on the ground,” he said.
Syria’s death toll has long been a hotly debated topic. The United Nations stopped publishing a death toll nearly a year ago after officials realized that they could not independently document the killings and that most of the groups purporting to have information were sympathetic to the rebels and did not delineate between civilian deaths and those of rebel combatants. For its part, the Syrian government provided statistics primarily for its supporters and police and soldiers killed in combat with the rebels. The government stopped publicizing those casualties late last spring as it became clear rebels were taking an ever greater toll on government forces.
The Benetech study was an effort to arrive at an accurate figure by comparing the reports provided by both Rahman’s and Ziadeh’s groups and four others as well as the Syrian government. The firm’s statisticians compared each of the databases with one another in an effort to weed out duplicates and insufficiently documented deaths. Researchers included only casualties that had been identified with a first and last name and a date and place of death.
The process yielded a list of 59,648 unduplicated death reports from March 2011 through November. Of those, 76.1 percent were male and 7.5 percent were female. The sex of 16.4 percent could not be determined from the records, the report said.
But there were many questions that the report could not answer. For one, the analysis could not determine how many of those killed were civilians and how many were combatants. It also said that more than 70 percent of the records did not provide an age for the victim, meaning that the study could reach no conclusions about the death toll among children and the elderly.
The lack of information about whether the dead were bystanders or combatants also leaves open the debate over Syrian government tactics. Anti-Assad groups have consistently accused the government of targeting civilians in its bombardment of urban areas, a charge the Syrian government answers by claiming that the areas were occupied by armed rebels.
The way the various groups account for civilian casualties varies widely, underscoring the difficulty.
Ziadeh says his group’s numbers “indicate that 90 to 95 percent of those killed are civilians.” But Rahman’s Syrian Observatory sees a less lopsided ratio, with its numbers for November and December – 3,860 and 3,690, respectively – showing that only 42 percent of those were civilians.
Those variations exist even though both groups say they rely on the same basic methodology to gather their information: interviews with family members, photographic and video evidence, and evidence collected by activists on the ground to back up their statistics.
Both groups agree that violence peaked in August, when each counted for than 5,000 dead.
Rahman said, however, that he intends to present evidence to the United Nations that some of the death reports its study used included faked names and people who died from causes unrelated to the war.
He cited a recent attack on a gasoline station as example of the misrepresentation of some of the attacks that take place inside Syria.
“People said more than 30 people died,” Rahman said. “But no one had more than 12 names, or video of more than 12 bodies.”

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Karzai meets Obama: How will they shape a post-2014 Afghanistan?

Afghan President Hamid Karzai's visit to Washington this week will shape the future of Afghanistan, as he and Obama determine the number and role – if any – of US forces in Afghanistan post-2014.
After more than a decade of war and costly efforts to build infrastructure and train Afghan security forces that now number 350,000, the view from Kabul is still mixed. Many are concerned about what will happen when the bulk of the 66,000 remaining US troops will be withdrawn by the end of 2014. Others believe that Afghanistan is ready to stand on its own.
Yet worries about a collapse or a reignited civil war after the US pullout may be overblown, just as similar doomsday predictions about Iraq after the final US withdrawal in December 2011 have not come to pass.
"There is now a sense [among foreigners] that the lights are going to go out in 2014, that the sun is going to stop shining," says Martine van Bijlert, co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network in Kabul. "In the early years, they had this overly rosy picture, but since then there has been this decline and increasing pessimism. Both are over-estimations of the international role."
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Some fear a return to the dark days of the late 1990s, when the Taliban ruled most of Afghanistan with a centuries-old, unbending Salafi Islamist worldview. Others fear a breakdown of central government and return of warlordism, competing militias, and civil war.
A number of analysts, however, say Afghanistan has come too far since 2001 to disintegrate again into past eras of violence and lawlessness, and that those who fought over Kabul in the 1990s today have vested interests in keeping the peace in the capital.
"It's not important for us, the physical presence of Americans in Afghanistan, the numbers beyond 2014," says Hilaluddin Hilal, an Afghan Air Force general and deputy Interior minister for security until 2005.
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"The important thing is a strong partnership and the existence of the US as an ally. We don't want the Americans to take part in the frontline fight against insurgents; we have enough [troops]," says Hilal.
He ticks off a list of complaints voiced by many Afghans: rampant corruption, poor governance with limited capacity, and billions in Western reconstruction aid that often lined pockets instead of creating sustainable, tangible results.
"Now the big problem is disagreement between Karzai and the US – this can create strategic problems for the US and Afghanistan in the future," says Hilal. "Sometimes the president says the reason for insecurity is America itself.... And the Taliban, the president calls them 'brothers,' but they kill innocent people. How can that be? We have no definition of who is the enemy [so] there is no clear strategy about the enemy in Afghanistan."
Mr. Karzai's visit to Washington comes amid news from Afghanistan of yet another "green on blue" attack of a uniformed member of the Afghan Army shooting dead a British soldier on Monday – a reminder of the uncertainties and eroded trust as the US plans to withdraw the bulk of its troops. US forces are part of a 100,000-strong NATO contingent.
The killing was the latest in a surge of such attacks. During the past year, insider attacks killed 63 US and NATO troops, in 47 incidents.
'WE HAVE DONE SO MUCH'
"There is a Western point of view that we have done so much all this time, that we have tried so hard to build up this government, that it's still in such bad shape, that it must be impossible for it to roll on and continue to exist without our help," says Ms. Bijlert.
Yet, "the actual locally relevant governance and politics that went on was often not that visible to the foreigners here. This will probably continue," says Bijlert. Often classified as dysfunctional, that system "has defused a lot of the possible violence."
"The complexity of it might be uniquely Afghan. It's very much a personalized, patronage-based society.... Your relationships are the main capital you have, and also the greatest threat: Who is your friend and your enemy is the most important thing in life," adds Bijlert.
"And with all the turnovers over the decades, things have become ever more complicated, [leaving] you with layers of multiple loyalties," notes Bijlert. "Anyone who's anybody, politically or socially, even on the village level, has to engage in complicated, almost mathematical relational calculations all the time – that's what politics are made of here. Also, it's very brutal: It's easy to get killed or beaten up. So you're constantly engaging in actions to defuse that."
Much of that political dynamic bypassed US and NATO forces as they sought to stamp out an insurgency that leapt up after US forces and intelligence shifted attention in 2002 toward Iraq.
DASHED HOPES
The result has been dashed hopes that were high among Afghans, after the Taliban and Al Qaeda militants were forced from power and out of Kabul by US airstrikes and Northern Alliance fighters in late 2001. Afghans expected dramatic and positive change, spearheaded by American forces, aid, and good intentions.
"People are so disappointed; expectations were normal, but they didn't finish the Taliban," says a former translator for US and British forces, who spoke in Kabul on the condition he not be named because has been threatened because of his previous translation work.
"Before [2001], people thought of the Taliban as a military power, but now they are a political power, because they can play a game and they are doing it," says the Afghan translator.
"To be honest, [the US] lost the war. With all this effort, you expect good results, but they are not there," says the translator. "Now [US forces] are trying to reduce their casualties. If they won the war, why do they want to keep 10,000 troops? It means there are still things to do, and the threats are worse [today] than five years ago. In 2001, it was so easy to finish the Taliban, [but] now the Taliban are in an offensive position."
The translator recalls hearing repeated complaints from Afghan villagers as US troops made patrols in the less-welcoming southern reaches of the country, that it was the US presence that endangered them – not only the Taliban.
"They were hating both sides, they were harmed by both sides," says the translator. "[Villagers] would say: 'Please, for God's sake, leave! You are the main reason for the problem. From the day you arrived, there was bombing.' The American commander laughed and said, 'We are bringing security to you.' They replied: 'No, we feel insecurity with you.'"
An elder from the remote eastern province of Nuristan says he heard similar sentiments.
Yacoub Nuristani, who helped US Provincial Reconstruction Teams choose and fund projects, says there is little left to show for that work besides a few clinic and school buildings.
A key road near Kamdesh is now too insecure to use. Five years ago, the Monitor reported on Taliban killings of elders who cooperated with US forces, which later withdrew completely from the province.
"The people of Kamdesh fought against the Taliban when the Americans were there, they were threatened by the Taliban," says Mr. Nuristani, speaking in Kabul. "Now the Taliban are there, but they don't threaten because there are no US or foreign troops."
Those who supported the government and fought the Taliban, says Nuristani, now have no government support "so they had to flee."
NO 'VICTORY'
Few say they believe that the Taliban could reimpose their rule on Afghanistan before or after 2014, and some say the spate of suicide bombings in recent years – which have often targeted civilians in mosques and shops – is a sign of weakness.
However, few on the ground here use the word "victory."
"It was just a given, it was going to be a success, and if it wasn't going to be a success, it had to be made to look like a success," says Bijlert of the Afghanistan Analysts Network. "That skewed everything, so it became difficult to say, 'Actually, this is very hard, and maybe we should rethink.'
Thus emerged a pattern of expectation, that a solution was just around the corner, if this step were taken to win hearts and minds, or that troop surge was implemented. Instead, the insurgency continues.
Says Bijlert: "Some of it was almost like an evangelical belief, that something was on the verge of happening that would change everything."
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Britain debates: What should European welfare look like?

On Tuesday, the British government pushed through a parliamentary vote to temporarily cap welfare benefits, setting down a dividing line on an issue that will be pivotal in determining who wins the UK's next general election.
But it also is the latest round of a struggle being played out across virtually every European nation facing the questions of what a welfare state should look like in the 21st century and how it can be subsidized in an era when the right (and many on the left) claim that dwindling resources mean traditional models are no longer affordable.
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The bill, backed by the government's Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties coalition, caps annual increases in many benefits to 1 percent – effectively a real-term cut as it is below the expected level of inflation – and passed the House of Commons easily despite opposition from both the opposition Labour Party and even from some Liberal Democrat members of the governing coalition.
DOMESTIC DEBATE OVER DEPENDENCY
The government paints the measure as necessary to fix an increase in benefits paid to supposedly work-shy “shirkers” over the past five years at a time when another group characterized as “strivers” have been unfairly shouldering the burden of paying taxes.
"Where is the fairness, we ask, for the shift worker, leaving home in the dark hours of the early morning, who looks up at the closed blinds of their next door neighbor sleeping off a life on benefits?” asked Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne last year when the measure was announced.
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But critics charge that Mr. Osborne's imagery was a classic example of Conservative Party scapegoating of the poor, meant to play to a particular strata of voters fiercely fought over by the Tories and Labour. Labour points to analysis showing seven million working households will lose out by an average £165 ($265) annually under the plan. And Sarah Teather, a Liberal Democrat member of Parliament who lost her job as children and families minister in a reshuffle in September, also said she would be voting against.
"As a constituency MP representing a very deprived area in London, I feel deeply anxious about the policy and I will be voting against the bill... very reluctantly and with a very heavy heart," she told the BBC.
By ramping up the rhetoric ahead of today's vote, Britain's Conservative Party sought to exploit perceived associations between their Labour opponents and notions of an outdated welfare state. Drawing on focus group research, one recent Conservative election attack advert featured an image of a man on sofa watching day-time television and asked if the government should support “hard-working families or people who don’t work.”
Polling last week also revealed that more than two out of five people believe that benefits were too generous, and three out of five buy into the idea that a culture of dependency had emerged. A British trade union umbrella body that commissioned the research said Tuesday that public support for measures such as the one adopted by Parliament was based on ignorance of who will suffer.
A EUROPEAN PROBLEM
But in many ways, the British debate over how to deal with its welfare state amid an economic crisis is par for the course in Europe – and one that, according to the British government, the UK is handling better than its peers on the continent.
In Portugal, Ireland, and Greece, the three eurozone countries that have suffered most from the crisis engulfing the current zone, draconian cuts in welfare have been part of the bargain for IMF bailouts. France's newly elected Socialist president, François Hollande has meanwhile been preparing the French for major changes to one of Europe's most expansive welfare states, pledging to bring down the budget deficit to 3 percent this year and announcing that “we must be ready to do better by spending less.”
Traute Meyer, a professor at the University of Southampton involved in research about the welfare state in Europe, points out that trends over the past 10 years have seen every European welfare state moving to change to their system in line with their own unique cultural and historical traditions. “Nordic countries are still those with the highest employment rates and equality measures. Systems in southern countries still tend to be the most fragile, while Germany and others on the continent are holding onto systems based on social-insurance-based income,” she says.
“But at the same time you can see certain challenges and priorities are very similar," Dr. Meyer adds. "One is that all countries are thinking more about measures that will integrate people in the labor force – welfare to work.”
“So, in most countries, benefits that deactivate workers, such as early retirement, are being phased out, while those that activate people into the workforces are being brought in. Enhanced childcare is on the table in many places.”
James Plunkett, director of policy at the Resolution Foundation think tank, notes that much political debate about welfare reform in the UK had turned on a long-running theme drawing on language such as “scroungers and strivers” – language particular to the British view of welfare.
While British workers pay a certain percentage of their income – known as the "replacement rate" – into an unemployment fund which they can tap if they become unemployed, that rate is so low that it gives the workers a sense that unemployment payments are "not meant for everyone," thereby creating a stigma against taking such payments, he says.
“In other countries," he adds, the welfare system "is seen more as a general insurance mechanism for everyone.”
“[I]n a country like Denmark for example, there is almost no stigma attached to being on unemployment benefit. It's quite common to graduate and be on unemployment benefit for a time. I suspect that is a more common experience where as here there is more stigma attached to it.”
AHEAD OF THE GAME?
When it comes to the much larger budget surrounding pensions Britain may at least be a step ahead of other continental countries, including Germany, despite an often repeated narrative that holds that past reforms by German governments to streamline labor laws and revamp unemployment benefits have put it on the kind of stable footing envied by European peers.
Meyer, whose particular area of expertise is pensions, said that reforms in Britain by Labour in the second half of the last decade, and taken on by the coalition, have improved pension benefit in the future for lower income groups.
“In contrast, arising from the German pension reforms during the late '90s and early 2000s, there is increasing recognition in the German poverty debate that changes have led to a significant deterioration in future benefits for pensioners. If you take the perspective of pension, which is one of the largest parts of the Western welfare state budget, Germany has deteriorated and future poverty risks have increased while poverty rates for British pensioners have improved."
With its latest pension reforms, Meyer says that the UK is now closer to the sort of welfare approach taken by Nordic countries and the Netherlands.
"They have a basic state pension close to the poverty line and an occupational compulsory pension on top. In that sense the UK is not ahead but catching up, however, it is ahead of those countries that have now cut their previously very generous state pensions considerably, such as Germany and Italy."

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Tennis-Serena offers ominous warning for Australian Open rivals

BRISBANE, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Serena Williams felt she was close to accessing the sporting "zone" during her emphatic 6-2 6-1 victory over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the final of the Brisbane International on Saturday.
Williams needed only 51 minutes to beat the Russian in an ominous warm-up for the Australian Open, which begins in Melbourne on Jan. 14.
"I've been in the zone a few times," Williams told reporters.
"I don't know if I was in the zone today, but I was definitely heading in that direction. I've been in the twilight zone before, where I just felt so good I couldn't do anything wrong."
The world No.3's performance was so strong that Pavlyuchenkova said afterwards: "I always feel like I don't know how to play tennis when I play against you."
Williams captured the 47th title of her career. She has won 35 of her past 36 matches while claiming Wimbledon, the Olympics, the US Open, the season-ending tour championship and now the opening event of 2013.
The 31-year-old American roared through the Brisbane tournament without the loss of a set.
She said: "I was looking at a lot of old matches on YouTube, and I feel like right now I'm playing some of my best tennis. I feel like I want to do better and play better still."
Williams said a decision to seek on-court tranquillity after a shattering defeat to Virginie Razzano at the French Open last year had triggered her career resurrection.
"I really started being more calm on the court and just relaxing more, if it's possible for me to relax," she said.
"I feel better when I'm more calm. When I'm crazy like I was in Paris, as you can see, it doesn't do great for me. I think it is a really fine line between being too calm... I think sometimes if I'm too calm it doesn't work for me, either. I can be calm and still be pumped up and really excited.
"I can't do too much of either."
Williams said she wanted to take up meditation as an off-court routine, even though it would challenge her.
"I can never sit long enough for meditation," she said. "I really want to meditate more and I want to be still and be in that quiet area. But I just pick up my iPad and start playing some games, and then next thing I know I'm watching TV.
"Hopefully I can get there."
At Melbourne Park Williams will be chasing her 16th major championship and sixth Australian Open title.

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Cricket-Australia drop Hussey, rest Clarke for one-dayers

SYDNEY, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Mike Hussey's retirement from international cricket is likely to come sooner than he thought after he was omitted from Australia's squad for the first two matches of their one day series against Sri Lanka on Sunday.
Hussey had already said that the third test against Sri Lanka, entering its fourth day at the Sydney Cricket Ground, would be his last for his country and he would step away from international cricket at the end of the Australian summer.
Australia's selection panel, however, did not give the 37-year-old the opportunity of a farewell tour in the shortened form of the game, instead opting to look to the 2015 World Cup.
"Taking a long term view towards the ... World Cup the (selectors have) decided not to include Michael Hussey in the squad for the ... series," said chairman of selectors John Inverarity.
"Michael has been a tremendous ODI player for Australia over a long period of time, a match-winner for his country and his presence in coloured clothing will be sorely missed."
Australia captain Michael Clarke, aggressive opening batsman David Warner and wicketkeeper Matthew Wade were also not considered for the squad.
Clarke has been given time to recover from a hamstring injury, while Warner and Wade are given time to rest having played all six tests so far this season.
All rounder Shane Watson, who has been struggling with a calf injury, was also not considered. George Bailey will captain the side in Clarke's absence.
The five-match one day series begins on Jan. 11 in Melbourne.

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Cricket-Australia set target of 141 for third test victory

SYDNEY, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Australia were set a victory target of 141 runs after bowling Sri Lanka out for 278 in their second innings before lunch on the fourth day of the third test on Sunday.
The tourists, already 2-0 down in the series, resumed on 225 for seven looking to bulk up their lead of 87 to somewhere between 150 and 175 to give their bowlers something to work with.
Dinesh Chandimal hit a defiant 62 not out off 106 balls but ran out of partners when Jackson Bird had Nuwan Pradeep caught behind for nine about 30 minutes before lunch.
Rangana Herath had survived an early run out scare when Matthew Wade threw the ball over the head of Mitchell Johnson but was gone for 10 in the next over when he dragged the ball onto his stumps off the bowling of Jackson Bird.
Suranga Lakmal did not hang around for long, departing for a duck after walking across his stumps, swinging and missing and watching Johnson's delivery shatter the stumps.

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NHL: League and players resume face-to-face labor talks

The National Hockey League (NHL) and the union representing its players met face-to-face along with a federal mediator on Saturday with hopes of ending a lockout in time to salvage a condensed season.
A small group meeting between the league, union and mediator began early Saturday afternoon in New York, according to a NHL Players' Association (NHLPA) spokesman.
The meeting, which began with less than a week to go until the league's self-imposed deadline to reach a deal, marked the first face-to-face dialogue between the league and NHLPA since talks broke down two days ago.
The two sides met separately with the mediator on Friday.
With half of the 2012-13 regular season already lost to the labor dispute, the NHL has set a January 11 deadline for a new deal so that a 48-game campaign could begin eight days later.
The lockout, which the league has said is costing it about $18-$20 million a day, began in mid-September when the previous collective bargaining agreement expired with both sides at odds over how to split the NHL's $3.3 billion in revenue.
The dispute, which follows a lockout that wiped out the entire 2004-05 campaign, is now centered around the salary cap number for the 2013-14 season, the pension fund and length of player contracts.

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Venezuela VP: Chavez suffers 'new complications'

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Hugo Chavez has suffered "new complications" following his cancer surgery in Cuba, his vice president said Sunday, describing the Venezuelan leader's condition as delicate.
Vice President Nicolas Maduro spoke with a solemn expression in a televised address from Havana, saying he had spoken with Chavez and that the president sent greetings to his homeland. Maduro did not give details about the complications, which he said came amid a respiratory infection.
"Several minutes ago we were with President Chavez. We greeted each other and he himself referred to these complications," Maduro said, reading from a prepared statement. The vice president was seated alongside Chavez's eldest daughter, Rosa, and son-in-law Jorge Arreaza, as well as Attorney General Cilia Flores.
Maduro's comments suggest an increasingly difficult fight for the ailing president. The Venezuelan leader has not been seen or heard from since undergoing his fourth cancer-related surgery Dec. 11, and government officials have said he might not return in time for his scheduled Jan. 10 inauguration for a new six-year term.
"The president gave us precise instructions so that, after finishing the visit, we would tell the (Venezuelan) people about his current health condition," Maduro said. "President Chavez's state of health continues to be delicate, with complications that are being attended to, in a process not without risks."
Maduro held up a copy of a newspaper confirming that his message was recorded on Sunday.
"Thanks to his physical and spiritual strength, Comandante Chavez is facing this difficult situation," Maduro said.
Maduro said he had met various times with Chavez's medical team and relatives. He said he would remain in Havana "for the coming hours" but didn't specify how long.
Maduro, who arrived in Havana on Saturday for a sudden and unexpected trip, is the highest-ranking Venezuelan official to see Chavez since the surgery in Cuba, where the president's mentor Fidel Castro has reportedly made regular visits to check on him.
Before flying to Cuba, Maduro said that Energy Minister Hector Navarro would be in charge of government affairs in the meantime.
"The situation does not look good. The fact that Maduro himself would go to Cuba, leaving Hector Navarro in charge only seems understandable if Chavez's health is precarious," said David Smilde, a University of Georgia sociologist and analyst for the Washington Office on Latin America think tank.
Smilde said that Maduro probably made the trip "to be able to talk to Chavez himself and perhaps to talk to the Castros and other Cuban advisers about how to navigate the possibility of Chavez not being able to be sworn in on Jan. 10."
"Mentioning twice in his nationally televised speech that Chavez has suffered new complications only reinforces the appearance that the situation is serious," Smilde said.
Before his operation, Chavez acknowledged he faced risks and designated Maduro as his successor, telling supporters they should vote for the vice president if a new presidential election were necessary.
Chavez said at the time that his cancer had come back despite previous surgeries, chemotherapy and radiation treatment. He has been fighting an undisclosed type of pelvic cancer since June 2011.
Medical experts say that it's common for patients who have undergone major surgeries to suffer respiratory infections and that how a patient fares can vary widely from a quick recovery in a couple of days to a fight for life on a respirator.
Maduro's latest update differed markedly from last Monday, when he had said he received a phone call from the president and that Chavez was up and walking.
The vice president spoke on Sunday below a picture of 19th century independence hero Simon Bolivar, the inspiration of Chavez's leftist Bolivarian Revolution movement.
Maduro expressed faith that Chavez's "immense will to live and the care of the best medical specialists will help our president successfully fight this new battle." He concluded his message saying: "Long live Chavez."
Chavez has been in office since 1999 and was re-elected in October, three months after he had announced that his latest tests showed he was cancer-free.
Opposition politicians have criticized a lack of detailed information about Chavez's condition, and last week repeated their demands for a full medical report.
Information Minister Ernesto Villegas defended the government's handling of the situation, saying during a televised panel discussion on Sunday night that Chavez "has told the truth in his worst moments" throughout his presidency.
Villegas said a government-organized New Year's Eve concert in a downtown Caracas plaza had been canceled, and he urged Venezuelans to pray for Chavez.
Chavez's daughter Maria, who has been with the president since his surgery, said in a message on her Twitter account: "Thank you people of Venezuela. Thank you people of the world. You and your love have always been our greatest strength! God is with us! We love you!"
Allies of the president also responded on Twitter, repeating the phrase: "Chavez lives and will triumph."

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Venezuela's official statement on Chavez's health

English translation of statement read by Vice President Nicolas Maduro in Havana on Sunday about the health of President Hugo Chavez:
"The Government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela fulfills its duty by informing the Venezuelan people about the course of President Hugo Chavez's medical treatment after the surgery performed in Havana, Cuba on Dec. 11.
"As is known, on December 28 we traveled to Havana on the instructions of the President Commander, and I proceed to make the following report:
"Arriving in Havana, we went immediately to the hospital to update ourselves firsthand on the situation of the Commander President's health.
"We were informed of new complications arising from the already known respiratory infection.
"Yesterday, we kept abreast of the evolution of the situation and the response to treatment. We met several times with his medical team and his closest relatives.
"A few minutes ago we were with President Chavez, we greeted each other and he himself referred to these complications.
"We had the opportunity to share with the current national situation, the successful inaugurations of Bolivarian governors in 20 departments, and the satisfactory reception of his New Year message to the Bolivarian National Armed Forces.
"In particular, Commander Chavez wanted his New Year greeting transmitted to all Venezuelan families, who are gathering together in these days along the length and breadth of the country; he especially sent a warm hug to all the boys and girls of Venezuela, reminding them that he always holds them close to his heart. The embrace was extended to all our people, so that they receive love in 2013, a year which should be of the greatest happiness for our homeland, of definitive consolidation of our independence and national unity.
"The President gave us precise instructions so that, after finishing the visit, we would tell the (Venezuelan) people about his current health condition.
"Nineteen days after his complex surgery, President Chavez's state of health continues to be delicate, with complications that are being attended to, in a process not without risks. Thanks to his physical and spiritual strength, Commander Chavez is facing this difficult situation.
"At the same time, we have decided to announce that we will stay in Havana for the next few hours, accompanying the Commander and his family, very attentive to how the current situation is evolving.
"Confident that the global outpouring of love and solidarity for Commander Chavez, along with his immense will to live and the care of the best medical specialists will help our president successfully fight this new battle."
"Long Live Chavez!

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A lesson in pop culture via Guantanamo

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SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — An Afghan man who is being held with the most significant terrorism suspects in U.S. custody has apparently gained extensive knowledge of western pop culture in an unlikely place: the top secret prison-within-a-prison in Guantanamo Bay.
Nearly five years ago, Mohammed Rahim al-Afghani became the last prisoner sent to Guantanamo. He was accused of helping Osama bin Laden elude capture, and the CIA had interrogated him for months at an undisclosed location before he was locked away in Guantanamo's Camp 7, a prison unit shrouded in secrecy that holds about 15 men who have been designated "high value" detainees by the U.S. government.
With no court appearances, or even charges filed, nothing was heard from Rahim and he has remained largely a mystery. So, it was a surprise when his lawyer, Carlos Warner, released letters from the detainee described by the head of the CIA as a "tough, seasoned jihadist." More surprising still was the content: quirky notes peppered with references to Howard Stern, Fox News and the global video hit of South Korean singer PSY.
"Dear Mr. Warner," he wrote. "I like this new song Gangnam Style. I want to do the dance for you but cannot because of my shackles."
In another letter, the multilingual Rahim shows some familiarity with American slang. He tells his lawyer, most likely in jest, that he has adopted a banana rat, a rodent commonly spotted around the U.S. base in Cuba. "Tell the guards to leave my friend alone. They need to chillax."
It's hardly what one would expect from a middle-age Afghan who has never been to the U.S. While there is still little public information about Rahim, the letters provide some insight into the man — and suggest that the prisoners in Camp 7, a group that includes five charged with aiding and orchestrating the Sept. 11 terror attack, are not completely isolated from the outside world.
To Warner, a federal public defender for the Northern District of Ohio, the letters humanize a man who he contends has been demonized by U.S. authorities, who allege he worked as a translator and assistant to bin Laden and other al-Qaida leaders. The lawyer says the letters demonstrate a surprising amount of resilience.
"It shows he's different and he's intelligent," Warner said. "Just think that he's doing this under all the restrictions that's he's under down there. He has an incredibly good sense of humor."
There have been letters released to the media in the past from other detainees at Guantanamo, often providing valuable information about a prison that will have been open for 11 years on Jan. 11. Sami al-Haj, an Al-Jazeera journalist when he was captured and sent to Guantanamo, provided detailed accounts of a hunger strike before he was eventually released. Shaker Aamer, the last resident of Britain still held at the prison, has given an insider's view on confinement conditions.
Rahim's are different because he is in Camp 7, and the content departs so sharply from what one might expect from a jihadist. "I want you to contact Amanda Palmer," he wrote Nov. 6, referring to the American singer. "... Ask her to write a song about me and my family."
Warner and U.S. officials are prohibited from publicly discussing Rahim's life and the allegations against him, but the broad outlines are in a public document filed in federal court by the government in response to Warner's filing of a civil writ of habeas corpus seeking the prisoner's release.
The document says Rahim is about 47 and was born in eastern Afghanistan. He fled with his family over the border to Pakistan when the Soviet Union invaded in 1979. Rahim has told authorities that he returned temporarily to fight the invaders, a war that killed two of his brothers, and moved back permanently once they retreated from the country.
A younger brother, Abdul Basit, told The Associated Press in London, where he is seeking asylum, that Rahim eventually got a job working for an Afghan government committee responsible for eradicating opium poppies, but that he was forced from the job by members of the Taliban, the Islamic fundamentalist movement that emerged in the 1990s.
Basit, who was detained by the U.S. military for five years in Afghanistan, says his brother is a well-educated man who was not particularly interested in global politics. He suggests his brother is being held more for who he might know rather than what he has done. "There is no reason to put him in Guantanamo for this long time," Basit said in broken English.
The Justice Department document says Rahim began helping the Taliban in the 1990s and that job morphed into working for al-Qaida. It cites two other prisoners and an undisclosed source identifying Rahim as a close associate of bin Laden. Rahim was captured in Pakistan in 2007 and turned over to the CIA, in whose custody he was subjected to prolonged sleep deprivation. He was transferred to Guantanamo in March 2008.
In photos taken by the Red Cross at Camp 7, and obtained by the AP from the prisoner's family in Afghanistan, Rahim has a long flowing beard. In one, he smiles broadly at the camera.
The first letters from Rahim released by Warner were in June, including one in which he disclosed that Majid Khan, a former Maryland resident who pleaded guilty to aiding al-Qaida, had acquired a cat at Camp 7, which AP reported at the time. The Pentagon and prison officials declined comment and said they could not discuss conditions of confinement for high-value detainees, although they added that prisoners are not permitted to have pets.
The rest of the letters came during or after subsequent visits by Warner, who had them cleared by the military before releasing them to the AP. None are more than a few sentences, and contain many typographical errors, which have been corrected for this story for the sake of clarity.
In one, Rahim returns to the theme of his fellow prisoner's alleged cat. "I want a dog," he writes. "I will train my dog to chase Majid Khan's cat."
In separate notes, he asks Warner to appeal for help from radio personality Howard Stern. "If he is the 'King of All Media' he can help me."
In another, he criticizes Fox News' "Fair and Balanced" slogan, writing that if that were true the channel "would not have to say it every five minutes."
How he came by this information is not clear. A prison spokesman, Navy Capt. Robert Durand, won't discuss life in Camp 7 but he says that "where satellite television and radio is available for detainees," they have access to a wide variety of channels in Arabic, Farsi, English, Russian, Spanish and other languages. The line-up, however, apparently does not include Howard Stern or Fox.
With no Internet access, he could have picked up such information from other shows or through Warner, who has spent hours with him and delivered magazines such as Rolling Stone, Sports Illustrated and The Economist.
The U.S. military will not say when or if Rahim will be charged. His name does not appear on the list of detainees who have been cleared for release from Guantanamo and his name was not among those mentioned as possible candidates for an exchange with the Taliban as part of a peace deal.

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Chavez suffers new complications in cancer fight

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — President Hugo Chavez's new complications after cancer surgery prompted his closest allies to call for Venezuelans to pray for him on Monday, presenting an increasingly bleak outlook and prompting growing speculation about whether the ailing leader has much longer to live.
Vice President Nicolas Maduro looked weary and spoke with a solemn expression as he announced in a televised address from Havana on Sunday that Chavez now confronts "new complications" due to a respiratory infection nearly three weeks after his operation. He described Chavez's condition as delicate.
The streets of Caracas were abuzz on Monday with talk of Chavez's increasingly tough fight, while the news topped the front pages of the country's newspapers.
"He's history now," said Cesar Amaro, a street vendor selling newspapers and snacks at a kiosk in downtown Caracas. He motioned to a daily on the rack showing side-by-side photos of Maduro and National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello, and said politics will now turn to them.
Amaro said he expects a new election soon to replace Chavez. "For an illness like the one the president has, his days are numbered now," he said matter-of-factly.
In Bolivar Plaza in downtown Caracas, Chavez's supporters strummed guitars and read poetry in his honor on New Year's Eve. They sang along with a recording of the president belting out the national anthem.
About 300 people filled a Caracas church for a Mass to pray for Chavez.
"This country would be terrible without Chavez. He's the president of the poor," said Josefa Carvajal, a 75-year-old former maid who sat in the pews. "They say the president is very sick. I believe he's going to get better."
The president's aides held a Mass at the presidential palace, while government officials urged Venezuelans to keep their president in their prayers.
Political analyst Ricardo Sucre said the outlook for Chavez appears grim, saying Maduro's body language during his televised appearance spoke volumes.
"Everything suggests Chavez's health situation hasn't evolved as hoped," Sucre said. He said Maduro likely remained in Havana to keep close watch on how Chavez's condition develops.
"These hours should be key to having a more definitive prognosis of Chavez's health, and as a consequence make the corresponding political decisions according to the constitution," Sucre said.
Sucre and other Venezuelans said it seems increasingly unlikely that Chavez would be able to be sworn in as scheduled on Jan. 10.
The Venezuelan leader has not been seen or heard from since undergoing his fourth cancer-related surgery Dec. 11, and government officials have said he might not return in time for his inauguration for a new six-year term.
If Chavez dies or is unable to continue in office, the Venezuelan Constitution says that a new election should be held within 30 days.
Before his operation, Chavez acknowledged he faced risks and designated Maduro as his successor, telling supporters they should vote for the vice president if a new presidential election were necessary.
Chavez said at the time that his cancer had come back despite previous surgeries, chemotherapy and radiation treatment. He has been fighting an undisclosed type of pelvic cancer since June 2011.
Maduro said on Sunday that he had met with Chavez. "We greeted each other and he himself referred to these complications," Maduro said, reading from a prepared statement.
"The president gave us precise instructions so that, after finishing the visit, we would tell the (Venezuelan) people about his current health condition," Maduro said. "President Chavez's state of health continues to be delicate, with complications that are being attended to, in a process not without risks."
Maduro was seated alongside Chavez's eldest daughter, Rosa, and son-in-law Jorge Arreaza, as well as Attorney General Cilia Flores. He held up a copy of a newspaper confirming that his message was recorded on Sunday.
"Thanks to his physical and spiritual strength, Comandante Chavez is facing this difficult situation," Maduro said.
Maduro said he had met various times with Chavez's medical team and relatives. He said he would remain in Havana "for the coming hours" but didn't specify how long.
Maduro, who arrived in Havana on Saturday for the sudden and unexpected trip, is the highest-ranking Venezuelan official to see Chavez since the surgery in Cuba, where the president's mentor Fidel Castro has reportedly made regular visits to check on him.
Before flying to Cuba, Maduro said that Energy Minister Hector Navarro would be in charge of government affairs in the meantime.
"The situation does not look good. The fact that Maduro himself would go to Cuba, leaving Hector Navarro in charge only seems understandable if Chavez's health is precarious," said David Smilde, a University of Georgia sociologist and analyst for the Washington Office on Latin America think tank.
Smilde said that Maduro probably made the trip "to be able to talk to Chavez himself and perhaps to talk to the Castros and other Cuban advisers about how to navigate the possibility of Chavez not being able to be sworn in on Jan. 10."
"Mentioning twice in his nationally televised speech that Chavez has suffered new complications only reinforces the appearance that the situation is serious," Smilde said.
Medical experts say that it's common for patients who have undergone major surgeries to suffer respiratory infections and that how a patient fares can vary widely from a quick recovery in a couple of days to a fight for life on a respirator.
Maduro's latest update differed markedly from a week ago, when he had said he received a phone call from the president and that Chavez was up and walking.
The vice president spoke on Sunday below a picture of 19th century independence hero Simon Bolivar, the inspiration of Chavez's leftist Bolivarian Revolution movement.
Maduro said that Chavez had sent year-end greetings to his homeland and a "warm hug to the boys and girls of Venezuela."
The vice president expressed faith that Chavez would "successfully fight this new battle." He concluded his message saying: "Long live Chavez."
On the streets of Caracas, images of Chavez smiling and saluting are emblazoned on campaign signs and murals. One newly painted mural reads: "Be strong, Chavez."
State television played video of Chavez campaigning for re-election, including a speech when he shouted: "I am a nation!"
A new government sign atop a high-rise apartment complex reads: "YOU ALSO ARE CHAVEZ."
Chavez has been in office since 1999 and was re-elected in October, three months after he had announced that his latest tests showed he was cancer-free.
Opposition politicians have criticized a lack of detailed information about Chavez's condition, and last week repeated their demands for a full medical report.
Information Minister Ernesto Villegas defended the government's handling of the situation, saying during a televised panel discussion on Sunday night that Chavez "has told the truth in his worst moments" throughout his presidency.
He also referred to a new surge of rumors about Chavez's condition and called for respect for the president and his family.
Chavez's daughter Maria, who has been with the president since his surgery, said in a message on her Twitter account: "Thank you people of Venezuela. Thank you people of the world. You and your love have always been our greatest strength! God is with us! We love you!"
Chavez's son-in-law Jorge Arreaza, who is the government's science minister and has been with the president in Cuba, urged Venezuelans in a Twitter message Monday night not to believe "bad-intentioned rumors" circulating online. "President Chavez has spent the day calm and stable, accompanied by his children," Arreaza said in the message.
Some who stood in the Caracas plaza on Monday night held pictures of the president. Speaking to the crowd, lawmaker Earle Herrera said that Chavez "is continuing to fight the battle he has to fight."

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Venezuelans offer prayers, songs for Hugo Chavez

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuelans gathered on plazas and in churches to pray for President Hugo Chavez amid what seems an increasingly gloomy outlook for the ailing leader in his fight against cancer.
Following an announcement that Chavez had suffered "new complications" from a respiratory infection after undergoing cancer surgery in Cuba, people were out in the streets of Caracas on Monday talking about the leftist president's chances of surviving.
"He's history now," said Cesar Amaro, a street vendor selling newspapers and snacks at a kiosk downtown. He motioned to a daily on the rack showing side-by-side photos of Vice President Nicolas Maduro and National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello, and said politics will now turn to them.
The vendor said he expected a new election soon to replace Chavez, who won re-election in October. "For an illness like the one the president has, his days are numbered now," Amaro said.
In Bolivar Plaza in downtown Caracas, Chavez's supporters strummed guitars and read poetry in his honor on New Year's Eve. They sang along with a recording of the president belting out the national anthem.
About 300 people filled a Caracas church for a Mass to pray for Chavez.
"This country would be terrible without Chavez. He's the president of the poor," said Josefa Carvajal, a 75-year-old former maid who sat in the pews. "They say the president is very sick. I believe he's going to get better."
Chavez's aides held a Mass at the presidential palace, while government officials urged Venezuelans to keep their leader in their prayers.
Some who stood in Bolivar Plaza held pictures of Chavez. Speaking to the crowd, lawmaker Earle Herrera said that Chavez "is continuing to fight the battle he has to fight."
"He's an undefeated president, and he'll continue to be undefeated," Herrera said.
Political analyst Ricardo Sucre said the outlook for Chavez appeared grim. Noting that Maduro appeared weary during a solemn televised appearance Sunday night to announce the latest setback for Chavez, Sucre said that spoke volumes about the situation.
"Everything suggests Chavez's health situation hasn't evolved as hoped," Sucre said. He said Maduro likely remained in Havana to keep close watch on how Chavez's condition develops.
"These hours should be key to having a more definitive prognosis of Chavez's health, and as a consequence to making the corresponding political decisions according to the constitution," Sucre said.
Sucre and other Venezuelans said it seems increasingly unlikely that Chavez would be able to be sworn in as scheduled Jan. 10 for his new term.
The Venezuelan leader has not been seen or heard from since undergoing his fourth cancer-related surgery on Dec. 11, and government officials have said he might not return in time for his inauguration for a new six-year term.
If Chavez dies or is unable to continue in office, the Venezuelan Constitution says that a new election should be held within 30 days.
Before his operation, Chavez acknowledged he faced risks and designated Maduro as his successor, telling supporters they should vote for the vice president if a new presidential election were necessary.
Chavez said at the time that his cancer had come back despite previous surgeries, chemotherapy and radiation treatment. He has been fighting an undisclosed type of pelvic cancer since June 2011.
"The situation does not look good," said David Smilde, a University of Georgia sociologist and analyst for the Washington Office on Latin America think tank.
"Mentioning twice in his nationally televised speech that Chavez has suffered new complications only reinforces the appearance that the situation is serious," he added.
Smilde said Maduro probably made the trip "to be able to talk to Chavez himself and perhaps to talk to the Castros and other Cuban advisers about how to navigate the possibility of Chavez not being able to be sworn in on Jan. 10."
Medical experts say that it's common for patients who have undergone major surgeries to suffer respiratory infections and that how a patient fares can vary widely from a quick recovery in a couple of days to a fight for life on a respirator.
On the streets of Caracas, images of Chavez smiling and saluting are emblazoned on campaign signs and murals. One newly painted mural reads: "Be strong, Chavez."
Venezuelans rang in the New Year as usual with fireworks raining down all over the capital of Caracas. But one government-organized outdoor party that had been scheduled in Bolivar Plaza with a lineup of Venezuela bands was canceled due to Chavez's precarious condition.
State television played video of Chavez campaigning for re-election, including a speech when he shouted: "I am a nation!"
A new government sign atop a high-rise apartment complex reads: "YOU ALSO ARE CHAVEZ."
Norelys Araque, who was selling holiday cakes on a sidewalk Monday, said she has been praying for Chavez. But, she added, "I don't think he will last long."
Araque said that her family has benefited from state-run subsidized food markets and education programs started by Chavez, and that she hopes the government carries on with the president's programs if he doesn't survive.
Chavez has been in office since 1999 and was re-elected in October, three months after he had announced that his latest tests showed he was cancer-free.
Opposition politicians have criticized a lack of detailed information about Chavez's condition, and last week repeated their demands for a full medical report.
Chavez's son-in-law Jorge Arreaza, who is the government's science minister and has been with the president in Cuba, urged Venezuelans in a Twitter message Monday night not to believe "bad-intentioned rumors" circulating online. "President Chavez has spent the day calm and stable, accompanied by his children," Arreaza said in the message.

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Roadside bomb kills 7 Afghans

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Officials say a powerful roadside bomb has killed five civilians and two police officers near a police checkpoint in western Afghanistan.

The governor of Nimroz province, Mohammad Sarwar Subat, says the blast occurred Thursday as a vehicle carrying the civilians was heading for a court hearing in the provincial capital, Zaranj.

The governor says the bomb was planted by "enemies of the state" — a term used by officials to describe the Taliban or allied groups.

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Pakistan reports 9th death in polio team attacks

PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AP) — Another victim from attacks on U.N.-backed anti-polio teams in Pakistan died on Thursday, bringing the three-day death toll in the wave of assaults on volunteers vaccinating children across the country to nine, officials said.
Hilal Khan, 20, died a day after he was shot in the head in the northwestern city of Peshawar, said health official Janbaz Afridi
Since Monday, gunmen had launched attacks across Pakistan on teams vaccinating children against polio. Six women were among the nine anti-polio workers killed in the campaign, jointly conducted with the Pakistani government.
The U.N. World Health Organization suspended the drive until a government investigation was completed.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called the killings "cruel, senseless and inexcusable." Speaking at his year-end news conference Wednesday, Ban said the victims were among thousands across Pakistan "working selflessly to achieve the historic goal of polio eradication."
The suspension of the vaccinations was a grave blow to efforts to bring an end to the scourge of polio in Pakistan, one of only three countries where the crippling disease is endemic.
Azmat Abbas, with UNICEF in Pakistan said the field staff would resume the work when they have a secure working environment.
"This is undoubtedly a tragic setback, but the campaign to eradicate polio will and must continue," Sarah Crowe, spokeswoman for UNICEF, said Wednesday.
However, local officials in the eastern city of Lahore continued the vaccination on Thursday under police escort, and extended the campaign with a two-day follow-up.
Deputy Commissioner Noorul Amin Mengal said about 6,000 Pakistani government health workers were escorted by 3,000 police as they fanned out across the city.
"It would have been an easy thing for us to do to stop the campaign," he said. "That would have been devastating."
No one has claimed responsibility for the attacks but some Islamic militants accuse health workers of acting as spies for the United States and claim that the vaccine makes children sterile.
Taliban commanders in the country's troubled northwest tribal region have also said the vaccinations can't go forward until the U.S. stops drone strikes in Pakistan.
The insurgent opposition to the campaign grew last year, after it was revealed that a Pakistani doctor ran a fake vaccination program to help the CIA track down and kill al-Qaida founder Osama bin Laden, who was hiding in the town of Abbottabad in the country's northwest.
Prevention efforts against polio have managed to reduce the number of cases in Pakistan by around 70 percent this year, compared to 2011, but the recent violence threatens to reverse that progress.

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Afghan president welcomes British pullout timeline

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — The Afghan president on Thursday welcomed the withdrawal of nearly half of the British troops stationed in Afghanistan next year, saying his forces were ready to take up the country's defense.
A statement from Hamid Karzai's office said the partial pull-out was an "appropriate" move as NATO forces transfer responsibility for the war against the Taliban to the Afghan military.
British Prime Minister David Cameron announced Wednesday that about 3,800 British troops would be withdrawn by the end of 2013, with some 5,000 staying into 2014. The majority of NATO forces, including those of the United States, are set to leave by the end of 2014.
"The Afghan security forces are ready to implement the defense and security of the country. It is an appropriate act in the transition of security to Afghan forces," Karzai's statement said.
Cameron told lawmakers in London that the decision reflects confidence in the Afghan military. It also reflects mounting political pressure and periodic public protests in Britain for the end of its military role in Afghanistan, where it sent the second largest NATO force after the United States and sustained the second highest number of casualties.
Afghanistan's army and police have grown substantially with the help of international allies and now number 350,000. But desertion rates, illiteracy and tensions among ethnic groups within the ranks remain high and analysts say the Afghan military still lacks the know-how to mount major, multi-unit operations. Attacks by insurgents still occur daily.
In the latest incidence of violence, a powerful roadside bomb killed five civilians and two police officers Thursday in the western province of Nimroz, governor Mohammad Sarwar Subat told The Associated Press. The blast, he said, occurred near a police checkpoint as a vehicle carrying the civilians headed for a session in the provincial capital, Zaranuj. The governor said the bomb was set by "enemies of the state," used by officials to describe the Taliban or groups allied to it.
NATO officials regularly praise operations as "Afghan-led," even when Afghan forces play a minimal role, making it difficult to determine their full capability to take over. Also, a surge in insider attacks by Afghan soldiers and police against their own colleagues and international allies has raised further questions about their readiness.
U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who visited the country last week, said U.S. commanders in Afghanistan believe NATO has "turned the tide" after 11 years of war. But skepticism remains over whether the Afghan military can hold back a still powerful and resilient insurgency after 2014.
The U.S. has some 66,000 troops in the country with the number to be pulled out next year and the size of a residual force past 2014 currently under review in Washington.
Cameron said some British troops would stay on after 2014 to return equipment and deal with logistics.
"We've said very clearly: no one in a combat role, nothing like the number of troops there are now," Cameron said. "We've promised the Afghans that we will provide this officer training academy that they've specifically asked for. We are prepared to look at other issues above and beyond that, but that is the starting baseline."
The withdrawal of British troops from Afghanistan will start next April, according to Defense Secretary Philip Hammond.
Cameron said Britain would continue to support Afghanistan by contributing about 70 million pounds (US $114,000) a year to help pay for Afghan security forces. Another 70 million pounds a year are spread through other aid programs.
Since 2001, 438 British personnel have died in Afghanistan.
Last month, France ended its combat operations in the country, pulling hundreds of troops from a base in a volatile region northeast of Kabul and fulfilling promises to end its combat role ahead of other NATO allies. France has lost 88 troops in Afghanistan since late 2001.

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Indian women live in fear of violence

NEW DELHI (AP) — It is almost every Indian woman's nightmare, lived daily when in public — a stream of obscene comments, unwanted hands being placed on them and then being blamed for causing the sexual violence.

The gang-rape and beating of a 23-year-old student by six men on a bus in New Delhi may have sparked days of protests and demands for authorities to take tougher action, but for women in India it is just an extreme example of what they have to live with.

Many in India's capital and across the country say they are constantly on guard, fearing everything from the routine gropings they suffer on public buses to far more violent assaults. Some say they have structured their entire lives around protecting themselves and their children.

Here are the stories of three women:

Gita Ganeshan, a 52-year-old bank worker, moved to New Delhi with her husband four years ago from the central city of Bhopal to protect their oldest daughter after she was attacked in the Indian capital, where she was studying.

The young woman had been out for a morning walk in a park near her house when four men surrounded her and began tormenting her, Ganeshan said.

"One of the men squeezed her breast. She screamed and kept screaming and running till she came home," she said.

She said she and her daughter would go to the park when she visited the city.

"This was a park where we would walk every day. The girls would jog or run and we would walk along," she said. "Just that one day, she went alone and this happened and it changed our outlook as far the safety of our girls was concerned."

Her daughter gave up jogging and wouldn't leave the house alone for months. Her parents got themselves transferred to the city to look after her.

"That was when we decided that protecting our children had to be our first priority. We've given them a good education. We cannot now tell them now not to pursue their careers because it is not safe to be out working late," she said.

She has trained the young woman to be alert: "Never let your guard down."

Now, Ganeshan is thinking of moving to the central city of Indore to protect her younger daughter, who got a job there.

But for now, she has arranged a special plan to watch over her from far away.

Every evening, her daughter calls as soon as she gets off the bus on her way home from work. The two talk for the next 15 minutes while the young woman walks the kilometer to her home, Ganeshan said.

"Every day, I wake up and my first thought is of my daughters and their safety. I call them up, or they call me," she said. "It is a real fear we confront when, even for a few hours, we are not in touch over the telephone."

Sandhya Jadon, 26, a lawyer from the northern town of Agra, said the harassment starts as soon as she leaves her home.

"For most men, any woman who is out of the four walls of her house is fair game," she said.

Last week, she was repeatedly groped on a public minibus.

"It was broad daylight. I was heading to court, and this man kept trying to touch my thigh. I shouted at him and he had the gall to ask me, 'So what can you do to stop me?'" she said.

She shouted, made the driver stop and got off. But the man continued sitting in the bus and grinning at his audacity. Not one of the 10 other passengers came to her help. Most looked away, she said.

"All day that day I was disturbed. I was shaking inside but also angry. Why do we women have to suffer this?" she asked.

For the next few days, she avoided public buses for fear she would run into the man again.

She feels relatively safe at court, in her lawyer's robes. But she still doesn't stay late at work and asks her parents to meet her at the bus stop to walk her home.

"But the fear — that something bad will happen if you are not careful — is always with you. It hangs over your work; it hangs over everything you do — what you wear, or don't wear; how you talk or how you walk. It is like this big suffocating cloud hanging over you every single day of your life," she said.

Priyanka Khatri, a 21-year-old college student, said fear of attack has forced her to limit her world.

There are no movies in the evening, no late-night parties, no outside activity at all after sundown. College events are cut short because she has to get home.

"Whatever happens, I have to be home before dark. Otherwise, my parents get so worried and they will keep calling me on my cell phone till they know I'm safe," she said.

Khatri said she will only go out in the evening accompanied by her parents to a nearby temple or a family wedding.

She is shadowed by fear when she gets dressed in the morning.

"I wouldn't dream of wearing shorts or skirts in public," she said.

She is petrified by her daily commute to school on public buses.

"Usually I carry a safety pin with me, because in buses there are always men who will try to touch you," Khatri said. "Some men are so brazen, you tick them off and they will persist on groping you. Then you feel you have to do something. So I stick my pin into them, or I use my elbow, and just jab them with my elbow. But that too makes you afraid."

And she has tempered her dreams to fit the reality of life in Delhi. The outgoing badminton enthusiast longed to be an event planner. Instead, she is looking for teaching jobs, "because then I can be home before dark."

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SKorea's president-elect faces NKorea uncertainty

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Park Geun-hye promises to reach out to North Korea with more humanitarian aid and deeper engagement after she moves into South Korea's presidential Blue House on Feb. 25. Pyongyang, however, may be in no mood to talk anytime soon.
Park's declarations ahead of Wednesday's election that she will soften five years of hard-line policy rang true with voters, even as they rejected her opponent's calls for a more aggressive pursuit of reconciliation with the North.
A skeptical North Korea may quickly test the sincerity of Park's offer to engage — possibly even before she takes office. She is both a leading member of the conservative ruling party and the daughter of the late anti-communist dictator Park Chung-hee, and Pyongyang has repeatedly called her dialogue offers "tricks."
Outgoing President Lee Myung-bak's tough approach on North Korea — including his demand that engagement be accompanied by nuclear disarmament progress — has been deemed a failure by many South Koreans. During his five years in office, North Korea has conducted nuclear and rocket tests — including a rocket launch last week — and it was blamed for two incidents that left 50 South Koreans dead in 2010.
But reaching out to North Korea's authoritarian government also has failed to pay off. Before Lee, landmark summits under a decade of liberal governments resulted in lofty statements and photo ops in Pyongyang between then-leader Kim Jong Il and South Korean presidents, but the North continued to develop its nuclear weapons, which it sees as necessary defense and leverage against Washington and Seoul.
Analysts said Park's vague promises of aid and engagement are not likely to be enough to push Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons ambitions, which Washington and Seoul have demanded for true reconciliation to begin. To reverse the antipathy North Korea has so far shown her, Park may need to go further than either her deeply conservative supporters and political allies or a cautious Obama administration will want.
"North Korea is good at applying pressure during South Korean transitions" after presidential elections, said Yoo Ho-yeol, a professor at Korea University in South Korea. "North Korea will do something to try to test, and tame, Park."
Even the last liberal president, Roh Moo-hyun, a champion of no-strings-attached aid to Pyongyang, faced a North Korean short-range missile launch on the eve of his 2003 inauguration.
North Korea put its first satellite into space with last week's rocket launch, which the U.N. and others called a cover for a test of banned ballistic missile technology.
Despite the launch, Park says humanitarian aid, including food, medicine and daily goods meant for infants, the sick and other vulnerable people, will flow. She says none of the aid will be anything that North Korea's military could use. She's open to conditional talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
The aid won't be as much as North Korea will want, to be sure, and it won't be as much as her liberal challenger in Wednesday's election, Moon Jae-in, would have sent. Park's conditions on aid and talks also could doom talks before they begin.
Pursuing engagement with North Korea "really would have to be her top priority for her to be a game-changing kind of leader on the issue," said John Delury, an analyst at Seoul's Yonsei University. He added that Park is more likely to take a passive, moderate approach.
"In the inter-Korean context, there's not a big difference between a passive approach and a hostile approach," Delury said, "because if you don't take the initiative with North Korea, they'll take the initiative" in the form of provocations meant to raise their profile.
North Korea was not a particularly pressing issue for South Korean voters, who were more worried about their economic futures and a host of social issues. But it is of deep interest to Washington, Beijing and Tokyo, which had been holding off on pursuing their North Korea policies until South Korean voters chose their new leader.
The next Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is a hawk on North Korea matters who has supported tighter sanctions because of the rocket launch.
The U.S. had attempted to warm relations with North Korea with an aid-for-nuclear-freeze deal reached with Pyongyang in February, but that collapsed in April when the North conducted a failed rocket launch.
Washington could use a new thaw on the Korean Peninsula as a cover to pursue more nuclear disarmament talks, analysts say, but the Obama administration will also likely want a carefully coordinated approach with Seoul toward Pyongyang.
Park's North Korea policy aims to hold talks meant to build trust and resolve key issues, like the nuclear problem and other security challenges. Humanitarian assistance to the North won't be tied to ongoing political circumstances, though her camp hasn't settled details, including the amount.
Park also plans to restart joint economic initiatives that were put on hold during the Lee administration as progress occurs on the nuclear issue and after reviewing the projects with lawmakers.
Park's statement that she's willing to talk with Kim Jong Un "practically means she's willing to give more money to North Korea," which is Pyongyang's typical demand for dialogue, said Andrei Lankov, a scholar on the North at Seoul's Kookmin University.
But the heart of the matter — North Korea's nuclear program — might be off limits, no matter how deeply the next Blue House decides to engage.
"North Korea isn't going to surrender its nukes. They're going to keep them indefinitely," Lankov said. "No amount of bribing or blackmail or begging is going to change it. They are a de facto nuclear power, period, and they are going to stay that way."

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